You are here:

New National Election Denial Risk Index Highlights Threats of Election Denialism to Democracy

Released on: May 16, 2023

Authors

Movement Advancement Project

Recommended Citation

Movement Advancement Project May 16, 2023 “New National Election Denial Risk Index Highlights Threats of Election Denialism to Democracy“ https://mapresearch.org/press-release/new-national-election-denial-risk-index-highlights-threats-of-election-denialism-to-democracy/ Accessed: July 17, 2026

MEDIA CONTACT:   
Rebecca Farmer, Movement Advancement Project
rebecca@mapresearch.org  | 303-578-4600 ext 122

May 16, 2023

Nearly 70% of American voters live in a state with at least a moderate risk of election denialism 
The new National Election Denial Risk Index released by the Movement Advancement Project (MAP) shows that more than two in three American voters (157 million voters) live in states with at least a moderate risk of election denialism jeopardizing future elections. Of those, 29 million voters live in high-risk states for election denial.  

A new report from MAPHow Election Denialism Threatens Our Democracy and the Safeguards We Need to Defend It, measures the level of risk to each state posed by election denialism, the resulting threats when the proper safeguards are not in place. The report also offers more than 10 recommendations for ways in which states can protect their elections from election deniers.  

“All but one battleground state from the 2020 election are at a risk of election denialism. Without action now by state legislatures, we’re likely to see the same chaos around the results of the 2024 general election. The time is now for states to enact policies to strengthen election laws to prevent election deniers from pushing our democracy to the brink,” said Ineke Mushovic, Executive Director of MAP. 

The National Election Denial Risk Index is a tool for lawmakers, journalists, and the public that can be used to examine the range of ways that election denialism poses a threat to each state and which policies can strengthen a state’s ability to combat these threats. The Index is a composite of several voting and election policies tracked by the Democracy Maps as well as seven additional policies. 

Takeaways from analysis based on the National Election Denial Risk Index include: 

  • Only one battleground state from the 2020 election (Michigan) is at lower risk of threats from election denialism, in part due to strong policies like best practice post-election audits and protections against partisan interference in the election certification process. 
     
  • Seven battleground states fall in the moderate risk category (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Battleground states in the last presidential election had slim margins of victory, making policies to defend against election denialism all the more important to ensure our elections are free from interference.
     
  • Only two states fall in the lowest risk category: Colorado and Oregon. 
     
  • Virginia has the third lowest risk of election denialism, faring better than California, New York, and Washington.
     
  • Six states fall into the highest risk category for threats posed by election denialism: Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Dakota, Texas. An estimated 29 million eligible voters live in these states. 


The report also outlines five key threats to our democracy that result from election denialism and offers solutions: 

  • Threat #1: Enacting restrictive voting measures and anti-democratic legislation.
    Solutions include passing federal voting rights legislation and state voting rights acts.
     
  • Threat #2: Election deniers winning critical offices where they can shape how elections are administered.
    Solutions include nonpartisan and professional election administration, as well as protection from insider threats.
     
  • Threat #3: Stoking doubt, harassment, and even violence against election officials with the goal of interfering with election results. 
    Solutions include legislation to specifically protect election officials from threats and increasing funding for elections to ensure security measures and other proper infrastructure.
     
  • Threat #4: Interfering in post-election processes to subvert election results.
    Solutions include limiting partisan involvement in post-election processes, increasing penalties for election subversion, and limiting frivolous recount requests.
     
  • Threat #5: Planting doubt in the minds of American voters which jeopardizes democracy.
    Solutions include transparency measures to restore voter confidence and combatting election disinformation. 


The report makes clear that action must be taken now at the state and national level. By enacting legislation to protect voting rights, insulating election administration systems from partisan actors, protecting election officials who are acting in good faith from threats, and taking measures to increase voter confidence, our democracy can be protected, preserved, and even further strengthened. 

“While the claims of election deniers didn’t ultimately upend our elections in 2022, election deniers still post serious threats to our democracy which need to be addressed. States still have time before the 2024 elections to fill the gaps in policies that put their state at risk of election denialism,” said Brian Hinkle, Voting Policy Researcher at MAP.  

### 

MAP’s mission is to provide independent and rigorous research, insight and communications that help speed equality and opportunity for all. MAP works to ensure that all people have a fair chance to pursue health and happiness, earn a living, take care of the ones they love, be safe in their communities, and participate in civic life. 

Last modified: March 25, 2026

Related resources

History of MAP: Building Common Ground Through Messaging
This blog highlights the legacy and ongoing impact of MAP’s messaging work. Alongside this history, we include several perspectives from MAP’s strongest supporters.
In This Moment, It’s Crucial That States Protect LGBTQ+ Data
As federal data collection on LGBTQ+ people is scaled back, states and localities are increasingly being called on to fill widening gaps in research and data on LGBTQ+ communities.
The Supreme Court Just Upheld State Mail Ballot Receipt Deadlines
In June 2026, SCOTUS ruled that federal Election Day statutes do not prevent states from counting mail ballots that are postmarked by Election Day but arrive afterward. This blog summarizes the decision, which preserves mail ballot grace periods in 14 states and D.C. ahead of the 2026 midterms.
History of MAP: Leading Through Collaboration
This third installment of our spotlight anniversary series identifies important examples of collaboration and partnership across MAP’s history.
State-Level Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Data Practices: Inclusive Data, Responsible Governance
This report maps the landscape of state-level SOGI data collection, assesses emerging risks of data misuse, and identifies policies and practices for leaders committed to ethical, responsible data governance.
Advancing Responsible State-Level SOGI Data Practices

Collection of data on sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) by government entities can be a powerful tool to understand the experiences, needs, and disparities affecting LGBTQ+ populations, informing evidence-based policymaking, strengthening program accountability, and supporting civil rights enforcement. As federal efforts to collect LGBTQ-inclusive data are scaled back, state

History of MAP: Tracking Equality and Democracy Through State Policy
In this second installment of our “History of MAP” series, we highlight MAP’s extensive collection of policy research — from its origins in the early 2000s to its most recent expansion through the Democracy Program.
Support for Transgender People is Higher Than Headlines Suggest
This partner brief from MAP and Advocates for Trans Equality (A4TE) offers new analysis which shows that transgender people are widely accepted and supported by their families, workplaces, faith communities, and more.
Democracy Maps Updates: June 2026

Join Our Community

Get research updates, stories, and ways to support.